UNITED NATIONS (AP) 鈥� The United Nations and other international organizations are bracing for four more years of Donald Trump, who famously tweeted before becoming president the first time that the 193-member U.N. was 鈥渏ust a club for people to get together, talk and have a good time.鈥�
In his first term, Trump suspended funding for the U.N. health and family planning agencies, withdrew from its cultural organization and top human rights body, and jacked up tariffs on China and even longtime U.S. allies by flaunting the World Trade Organization鈥檚 rulebook. The United States is the biggest single donor to the United Nations, paying 22% of its regular budget.
Trump鈥檚 take this time on the world body began taking shape this week with his choice of Republican Rep.
Stefanik, the fourth-ranking House member, called last month for a 鈥渃omplete reassessment鈥� of U.S. funding for the United Nations and urged a halt to support for its agency for Palestinian refugees, or UNRWA. the funding after UNRWA fired several staffers in Gaza suspected of taking part in the .
Here鈥檚 a look at what Trump 2.0 could mean for global organizations:
鈥楢 theater鈥� for a conservative agenda
Speculation about Trump鈥檚 future policies has already become a parlor game among wags in Washington and beyond, and reading the signals on issues important to the U.N. isn鈥檛 always easy.
For example, Trump once called climate change a hoax and has supported the fossil fuel industry but has . His first administration funded breakneck efforts to find a COVID-19 vaccine, but he has allied with
鈥淭he funny thing is that Trump does not really have a fixed view of the U.N.,鈥� said Richard Gowan, U.N. director for the International Crisis Group think tank.
Gowan expects that Trump won鈥檛 view the world body 鈥渁s a place to transact serious political business but will instead exploit it as a theater to pursue a conservative global social agenda.鈥�
There are clues from his first term. and is after President Joe Biden rejoined.
Trump also had the U.S. and the U.N.-backed Human Rights Council, claiming they were biased against Israel. Biden went back to both before recently on the council.
Trump cut funding for the U.N. population agency for reproductive health services, claiming it was funding abortions. UNFPA says it doesn鈥檛 take a position on abortion rights, and the U.S. rejoined.
He had no interest in multilateralism 鈥� countries working together to address global challenges 鈥� in his first term. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls it 鈥渢he cornerstone鈥� of the United Nations.
A new 鈥楥old War鈥� world?
The world is a different place than when Trump bellowed 鈥淎merica First鈥� while taking office in 2017: Wars have broken out in , and Sudan. North Korea鈥檚 nuclear arsenal has grown, and so have fears about .
The U.N. Security Council 鈥� more deeply divided among its veto-wielding permanent members Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. 鈥� has made no progress in resolving those issues. Respect for international law in war zones and hotspots worldwide is in shreds.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really back to Cold War days,鈥� said John Bolton, a former national security adviser at Trump鈥檚 White House.
He said for countries like Iran, which has stirred instability in the Middle East, and North Korea, which has . There's little chance of deals on proliferation of weapons of mass destruction or resolving conflicts involving Russia or China at the council, he said.
Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., expects Stefanik will have a 鈥渢ougher time鈥� because of the range of issues facing the Security Council.
鈥淲hat had been fairly sleepy during the first Trump term is not going to be sleepy at all in the second Trump term,鈥� he said.
The Security Council has been impotent on Ukraine since Russia鈥檚 February 2022 invasion because of Russia鈥檚 veto power. And it has failed to adopt a resolution with teeth demanding a cease-fire in Gaza because of U.S. support for Israel.
The Crisis Group's Gowan said Republicans in Congress are 鈥渇urious鈥� about U.N. criticisms of Israeli policies in Gaza and he expects them to urge Trump to "impose severe budget cuts on the U.N., and he will do so to satisfy his base.鈥�
Possible impact on U.N. work
The day-to-day aid work of global institutions also faces uncertainty.
In Geneva, home to many U.N. organizations focusing on issues like human rights, migration, telecommunications and weather, some diplomats advise wait-and-see caution and say Trump generally maintained humanitarian aid funding in his first term.
Trade was a different matter. Trump bypassed World Trade Organization rules, imposing tariffs on steel and other goods from allies and rivals alike. Making good on his new threats, like , could upend global trade.
Other ideological standoffs could await, though the international architecture has some built-in protections and momentum.
In a veiled reference to Trump鈥檚 victory at the , Guterres said the 鈥渃lean energy revolution is here. No group, no business, no government can stop it.鈥�
Allison Chatrchyan, a climate change researcher at the AI-Climate Institute at Cornell University, said global progress in addressing climate change 鈥渉as been plodding along slowly鈥� thanks to the Paris accord and the U.N. convention on climate change, but Trump鈥檚 election 鈥渨ill certainly create a sonic wave through the system.鈥�
鈥淚t is highly likely that President Trump will again pull the United States out of the Paris agreement,鈥� though it could only take place after a year under the treaty鈥檚 rules, wrote Chatrchyan in an email. 鈥淯nited States leadership, which is sorely needed, will dissipate.鈥�
During COVID-19, when millions of people worldwide were getting sick and dying, Trump lambasted the World Health Organization and suspended funding.
Trump鈥檚 second term won't necessarily resemble the first, said Gian Luca Burci, a former WHO legal counsel. 鈥淚t may be more extreme, but it may be also more strategic because Trump has learned the system he didn鈥檛 really know in the first term.鈥�
If the U.S. leaves WHO, that 鈥渙pens the whole Pandora's box, 鈥� by stripping the agency of both funding and needed technical expertise 鈥� said Burci, a visiting professor of international law at Geneva鈥檚 Graduate Institute. 鈥淭he whole organization is holding its breath 鈥� for many reasons.鈥�
But both Gowan and Bolton agree there is one U.N. event Trump is unlikely to miss: the annual gathering of world leaders at the General Assembly, where he has reveled in the global spotlight.
___
Keaten reported from Geneva. Associated Press writer Sibi Arasu contributed from Baku, Azerbaijan.
___
This story was first published Nov. 13, 2024. It was updated on Nov. 15, 2024, to correct that Allison Chatrchyan is not attending the U.N. climate conference and that she is a climate change researcher at the AI-Climate Institute at Cornell University, not the director. The AP, quoting Chatrchyan, also wrongly identified how soon it would take effect if Trump decides to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord. That could be one year, not four.
Edith M. Lederer And Jamey Keaten, The Associated Press
