The Associated Press has found that a Pentagon-funded study that looked into extremism in the military relied on old data, included misleading analyses and ignored evidence that could have led to a different conclusion.
Here are takeaways from .
What was the study?
After , when military leadership reacted with alarm when steps in military-style stack formation, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin outlined a variety of steps. Those included a request for a study by the Institute for Defense Analyses. The IDA, which a spokesman said was paid $900,000 for the study, is a longtime partner to the Pentagon that has received more than a billion dollars in contracts over the past decade to provide research and strategic consulting to the nation鈥檚 military.
The IDA鈥檚 study, entitled was published quietly just before Christmas 2023 鈥� nearly 18 months late and with no announcement. Its key recommendation: the DOD should 鈥渘ot overreact and draw too large of a target鈥� in its anti-extremism efforts, despite Austin鈥檚 promise to attack the problem head-on in the wake of Jan. 6.
What did the AP find?
The AP found that the IDA report鈥檚 authors did not use newer data that was offered to it, and instead based one of its foundational conclusions on Jan. 6 arrest figures that were more than two years out of date by the time of the report鈥檚 public release.
As a result, the report grossly undercounted the number of military and veterans arrested for the Jan. 6 attack and provided a misleading picture of the severity of the growing problem, the AP has found.
The IDA based its conclusion on arrests made as of Jan. 1, 2022, the year immediately following the attack. As of that date, 82 of the 704 people arrested had military backgrounds, or 11.6% of the total arrests, IDA reported.
But in the months and years that followed, the number of arrestees with a military background nearly tripled.
IDA鈥檚 report states that its research was conducted from June 2021 through June 2022. By June 2022, the number of active or former military arrested had grown by nearly 50%, according to the same dataset IDA cited from the Program on Extremism at George Washington University. When IDA鈥檚 report was published a year and a half later, in December 2023, 209 people with military backgrounds who attended the insurrection had been arrested, or 15.2%of all arrests.
That has since grown to 18%, according to data collected by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, or START, at the University of Maryland. It represents a significant statistical increase, and rises above the general population estimates IDA cited among its reasoning for recommending the Pentagon not overreact. START鈥檚 research was also funded by DOD and other federal agencies.
What is the extent of the problem of extremism in the military?
The number of service members and veterans who radicalize make up a tiny fraction of a percentage point of the millions and millions who have honorably served their country. Yet their impact can be large.
As the AP reported in , more than 480 people with a military background were accused of ideologically driven extremist crimes from 2017 through 2023, including the more than 230 arrested in connection with the Jan. 6 insurrection, according to data collected and analyzed by START. Though those numbers reflect a small fraction of those who have served in the military 鈥� and Austin, the current defense secretary, has said that extremism is not widespread in the U.S. military 鈥� that plots involving people with military backgrounds were more likely to involve mass casualties.
The IDA鈥檚 199-page report conceded that there was 鈥渟ome indication鈥� that the radicalization numbers in the veterans community could be 鈥渟lightly higher and may be growing鈥� but said its review found 鈥渘o evidence鈥� that was the case among active duty troops.
In fact, data show that since 2017 both service members and veterans are radicalizing at a faster rate than people without military training. Less than 1% of the adult population is currently serving in the U.S. military, but active duty military members make up a disproportionate 3.2% of the extremist cases START researchers found between 2017 and 2022.
IDA鈥檚 researchers were offered START鈥檚 data, according to Michael Jensen, START鈥檚 lead researcher. IDA鈥檚 report even called it 鈥減erhaps the best effort to date鈥� in collecting data on extremists in the military. But IDA never followed up to get it, Jensen said.
鈥淲e showed them data from over 30 years when they visited with us, so they knew the data were out there to look at a longer timespan,鈥� Jensen said. 鈥淲e offered it, and offered to help in any other way we could, but we never heard from them again after our one and only meeting.鈥�
An IDA spokesman defended the report, saying it remains confident that its findings were 鈥渟olidly based on the best data available at the time the work was conducted.鈥� The AP reached out by email and LinkedIn messages to several people listed as authors of the report. None provided comment. A Defense official said the department 鈥渋s committed to maintaining high standards for its data collection and transparency鈥� and referred specific questions on the methodology and analysis of the report to IDA.
Hegseth and Trump鈥檚 transition team did not respond to emails seeking comment.
What did others say about the IDA report?
In January of this year, , Donald Trump's pick to be defense secretary, told a Fox 撸奶社区 audience the study proved that the number of military service members and veterans involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection did not indicate a wider problem in the armed forces.
鈥淭hey knew this was a sham,鈥� Hegseth said, referring to Austin and other military leaders. 鈥淭hen they do the study, which confirms what we all know.鈥�
Hegseth, who was working for Fox 撸奶社区 at the time and had no involvement in the report, wasn鈥檛 alone. The Wall Street Journal鈥檚 opinion page highlighted the same report as evidence that extremists in military communities were 鈥減hantoms鈥� created by a 鈥渇alse media narrative.鈥� The X account for Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee posted that the study showed the focus on extremism in the military was a 鈥渨itch hunt.鈥�
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Aaron Kessler contributed reporting from Washington, D.C.
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Contact AP鈥檚 global investigative team at [email protected]
Michelle R. Smith And Jason Dearen, The Associated Press
