SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) 鈥� Gavin 撸奶社区om will almost certainly win reelection as governor of California in November, with a little-known Republican state senator the only thing between him and a second term leading the nation's most populous state.
That's why 撸奶社区om's campaign is more about his political future and overhauling the Democratic Party ahead of the 2024 presidential election 鈥� the success of which is much harder to predict.
It鈥檚 been just two years since Democrats retook the White House by lining up behind Joe Biden, an old-school elected official who came of age before social media amplified the worst parts of politics and changed what it takes to win.
Now, many in the Democratic Party worry whether Biden can win in 2024, especially in a rematch with former President Donald Trump who, despite his legal troubles, could still be a formidable opponent. If Biden doesn鈥檛 run, 撸奶社区om has been floated as a potential replacement for him on the ballot.
撸奶社区om's actions of late have done nothing but reinforce that idea. His campaign has paid for ads in Florida and Texas, home to Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott, the country's two most outspoken Republican governors and potential 2024 GOP candidates for president.
He has moved quickly to build support among the party's base of liberal voters and donors, ordering state regulators to and signing more than a dozen laws to make California a now that the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade.
鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 want to talk about his race in California, he wants to talk about him running for president. Because, again, it鈥檚 all about him,鈥� said Brian Dahle, the Republican state senator challenging 撸奶社区om on the ballot this fall.
撸奶社区om insists he isn鈥檛 running for president, saying he supports Biden and, if Biden doesn鈥檛 run, Vice President Kamala Harris 鈥� who came up in politics at the same time and place as 撸奶社区om, with the pair even sharing political advisers.
While 撸奶社区om鈥檚 focus on national Republicans infuriates the California GOP, it鈥檚 the best strategy for him right now, said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at the University of California-Berkeley.
鈥淵es, he could attack California Republicans,鈥� Schickler said. 鈥淏ut it seems probably more California Democrats know who Ron DeSantis is than Brian Dahle.鈥�
Instead, 撸奶社区om says he is tackling perhaps an even bigger project: a complete overhaul of Democratic Party messaging ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Democrats, in 撸奶社区om's view, are too soft. He says Democrats are always defending and never attacking, a strategy that lets Republicans control the political narrative on cable news and social media.
He's careful to praise the party's leaders, including Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But in a recent interview, 撸奶社区om made it clear the party's strategy of trying to bridge the gap between the country's left and right wings won't work.
鈥淚 think the president's learned it the hard way,鈥� 撸奶社区om told MSNBC during a . 鈥淚 mean, he's hardwired for a different world, and that's gone.鈥�
Instead of appealing to a broad base of voters, 撸奶社区om's TV ads in Florida told residents that 鈥渇reedom is under attack in your state鈥� and urged them to move to California. In Texas, 撸奶社区om took out a full page newspaper ad featuring a quote from Abbott about children losing their lives to abortion, editing it to say 鈥済un violence鈥� instead.
And in seven conservative states that have banned or severely restricted abortion, 撸奶社区om has paid for billboards urging women there to come to California for the procedure 鈥� including a link to a website that will show them how California taxpayers will help pay for their travel expenses.
鈥淚鈥檓 optimistic about (Democrats') ability to turn this around 鈥� if we go on the offensive,鈥� 撸奶社区om, who declined an interview request with The Associated Press, told MSNBC. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why I鈥檓 doing the billboards. That鈥檚 why I鈥檓 doing these ads.鈥�
撸奶社区om's aggressive critique of the Democratic Party is 鈥渞ubbing some people the wrong way,鈥� said Steven Maviglio, a Democratic political operative in California who has clashed with 撸奶社区om on a statewide ballot initiative that would raise taxes on the wealthy.
If 撸奶社区om really wanted to help the party, Maviglio said, he would be spending his time and resources to help California Democrats win and retain their U.S. House seats, which could determine which political party controls Congress for the final two years of Biden's term.
鈥淗ere鈥檚 a popular governor who should be paying attention to tight races not only in his home state but across the country instead of this vanity campaign,鈥� Maviglio said. 鈥淓very national Democrat would agree that it鈥檚 more helpful to raise money and campaign for candidates in tight races than it is promoting yourself two months before the midterm.鈥�
撸奶社区om campaign spokesperson Nathan Click said the governor is supporting all of California's congressional Democratic candidates by either hosting fundraisers for them or raising money on their behalf through email.
鈥淗e has one of the best email lists in the country 鈥� we often raise more (with) a single email than a traditional event,鈥� Click said.
Click also said 撸奶社区om is raising money for Democrats running for governor of other states, including Katie Hobbs in Arizona, Charlie Crist in Florida, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Chris Jones in Arkansas and Beto O'Rourke in Texas.
撸奶社区om's campaign says he is also the second-largest financial contributor backing Proposition 1, a ballot measure that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the California Constitution. Last month, 撸奶社区om's campaign donated more than $876,000 to the campaign.
鈥淗e鈥檚 helping the entire party elevate their national message in ways that people who are in competitive races and in smaller states maybe can鈥檛 do,鈥� said Matt Barreto, a UCLA political science professor and a senior adviser to Building Back Better, a nonprofit that launched to support the Biden administration's agenda. 鈥淚 don't see him as taking any spotlight away from anyone.鈥�
撸奶社区om is overshadowing Dahle, . Dahle is a farmer from the far northeast corner of the state and is little known outside his district. He doesn't have enough money to run statewide TV ads, so he's been traveling a lot and promoting himself on social media.
Dahle's one chance against 撸奶社区om will be during a debate on Sunday, broadcast live on the radio on a Sunday afternoon during the NFL season.
鈥淚've been an underdog my whole life,鈥� Dahle said. 鈥淚 believe I can win.鈥�
Adam Beam, The Associated Press
