By the time the Oscars wind around after months of other award shows and constant handicapping, the prizes can feel almost predetermined.
Not this year.
Sunday's 97th has more potential drama than any recent year, with many possible outcomes in the top categories, including best picture, best actor and best actress. After the first frontrunner and lead nominee, 鈥淓milia P茅rez,鈥� became engulfed in controversy, 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥� ran the table with a trio of precursor guild honors. Then 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥� swooped in to win at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Who will come out on top? Associated Press Film Writers and share their predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: 鈥淎nora," 鈥淭he Brutalist," 鈥淎 Complete Unknown,鈥� 鈥淐onclave,鈥� 鈥淒une: Part Two,鈥� 鈥淓milia P茅rez,鈥� 鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here,鈥� 鈥淣ickel Boys,鈥� 鈥淭he Substance,鈥� 鈥淲icked"
COYLE: Like any diagnosis this flu season, there are a lot of options. It would seem to be down to either (PGA, DGA and WGA wins) or (BAFTA, SAG), but it鈥檚 close enough that a shocker is in the realm of possibility. The film industry is in a strange, mixed-up place and we have had a strange, mixed-up awards season to suit it. Ultimately, I think Sean Baker鈥檚 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥� wins. I trust the top prizes from the and less than the 鈥� especially when the PGA opts for a scrappy indie over glossier studio productions. Plus, 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥� is a nice little movie, but best picture? Not to get my vestments in a twist, but come on, 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥� is a masterpiece.
BAHR: I kind of want to say 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥� just to hedge our bets. Maybe I鈥檒l talk myself into it by the end of this, but its recent wins over 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥� do make a certain amount of sense (in retrospect) for those particular voting bodies 鈥� actors and, well, Brits. It鈥檚 also the establishment choice in many ways, but one that also feels aligned with the very international membership of the academy. I agree that 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥� is a masterpiece, but maybe 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥� is the consensus 鈥� everyone鈥檚 second choice.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Demi Moore, 鈥淭he Substance鈥�; Cynthia Erivo, 鈥淲icked鈥�; Mikey Madison, 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥�; Karla Sof铆a Gasc贸n, 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥�; Fernanda Torres, 鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here鈥�
BAHR: This race feels so up in the air after Mikey Madison鈥檚 BAFTA win and 鈥淎nora鈥檚鈥� rise in general. Madison gave such a great and thoughtful speech there, praising her collaborators with the kind of specificity that doesn鈥檛 often happen on those stages, and it occurred before Oscar voting had ended. There鈥檚 even the possibility that ekes out a win. But I鈥檓 still leaning towards , who won at SAG, as the sentimental favorite 鈥� a fun, wild performance and a great comeback narrative. Plus, this award hasn鈥檛 really gone to an ingenue since .
COYLE: This should be close, but I also give the edge to Moore. She鈥檚 taken the lead thanks to the fearlessness of her performance in 鈥淭he Substance鈥� and arguably the season鈥檚 most convincing narrative. Still, I鈥檇 favor Madison, who absolutely commands 鈥淎nora.鈥�
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Adrien Brody, 鈥淭he Brutalist鈥�; Timoth茅e Chalamet, 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥�; Colman Domingo, 鈥淪ing Sing鈥�; Ralph Fiennes, 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥�; Sebastian Stan, 鈥淭he Apprentice鈥�
COYLE: Brody had been on cruise control for much of the season, but I think takes it. Even before his big victory at the SAG Awards, the academy鈥檚 fondness for the widely liked 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥� needed somewhere to go. This Oscars could end up best remembered as the (deserving) coronation of Hollywood鈥檚 crown prince.
BAHR: Oh great, because I鈥檓 sticking with Brody. I鈥檓 glad Chalamet won at SAG, it鈥檚 makes sense that his fellow actors would want to honor his commitment to that role and film. Five years in your 20s IS forever and it would be very neat for him to win at the same age Brody did for 鈥淭he Pianist鈥� (and in fact become the youngest winner ever). But considering the academy is a voting body that doesn鈥檛 often give this prize to young men, I think they go with the classic choice.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Monica Barbaro, 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥�; Felicity Jones, 鈥淭he Brutalist鈥�; Ariana Grande, 鈥淲icked鈥�; Isabella Rossellini, 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥�; Zoe Salda帽a, 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥�
BAHR: seems to have this prize in the bag. She has continued winning major awards, the BAFTA and SAG included, despite . Like Moore, she has a strong narrative working in her favor and has given good, passionate speeches throughout and people seem savvy enough to not 鈥減unish鈥� her for her co-star鈥檚 actions. It does seem a little unfair considering the fact that her character has more screentime than the person campaigning for lead. But that鈥檚 a conversation for another time.
COYLE: Salda帽a is a lock. She鈥檚 terrific in 鈥淓milia P茅rez,鈥� and manages to stay so grounded and natural amid such tonal extremes. A word, also for Grande and her best actress nominee co-star Erivo. Neither seems destined to win anything, but they both deserve some kind of accolade for their tireless promotion of 鈥淲icked鈥� and months of patient, understanding head nodding at whatever has been thrown their way.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Yura Borisov, 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥�; Kieran Culkin, 鈥淎 Real Pain鈥�; Edward Norton, 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥�; Guy Pearce, 鈥淭he Brutalist鈥�; Jeremy Strong, 鈥淭he Apprentice"
COYLE: wins this in a walk. His parade of acceptance speeches has curiously been both a regular reminder that his character in 鈥淎 Real Pain鈥� wasn鈥檛 exactly a stretch, and: So what? As good as this category is 鈥� the whole group is stellar 鈥� Culkin has won it through his natural manic charisma.
BAHR: It鈥檚 Culkin for sure and I鈥檓 very excited for his freewheeling speech. Is this a good time to wonder why awards campaigns tend to get so tunnel visioned around one performance at the complete exclusion of their counterpart? Probably not, but I see you Jesse Eisenberg and Margaret Qualley.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jacques Audiard, 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥�; Sean Baker, 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥�; Brady Corbet, 鈥淭he Brutalist鈥�; James Mangold, 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥� Coralie Fargeat, 鈥淭he Substance鈥�
BAHR: Sean Baker is the most likely winner here after the Directors Guild of America Awards. But it has happened that the DGA winner does not go on to win the Oscar, and as recently as 2020 when Sam Mendes lost the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho. But 鈥淎苍辞谤补鈥� is perhaps closer to 鈥淧arasite,鈥� both , and I鈥檓 not sure there鈥檚 an obvious second choice in this batch. If Baker isn鈥檛 the pick, all seem like fair game.
COYLE: I think Baker will win, too, though there鈥檚 a chance Corbet catches him. All of these nominees are first-timers, a nice infusion of fresh blood in a category often presided over by the old guard. A shame then that neither of the two most thrilling feature filmmaking debuts 鈥� (鈥淣ickel Boys鈥�) and Payal Kapadia (鈥淎ll We Imagine as Light鈥�) 鈥� made the cut.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: 鈥淏lack Box Diaries鈥�; 鈥淣o Other Land鈥�; 鈥淧orcelain War鈥�; 鈥淪oundtrack to a Coup d鈥橢tat鈥�; 鈥淪ugarcane鈥�
COYLE: This is a tough category partly because most of my favorite docs of 2024 鈥� 鈥淓rnest Cole: Lost and Found,鈥� 鈥淲ill & Harper,鈥� 鈥淒ahomey,鈥� 鈥淒aughters鈥� 鈥� weren鈥檛 nominated. The Oscar will likely either go to the searing on-the-ground chronicle of Israeli occupation in the West Bank, or 鈥淧orcelain War,鈥� a defiant portrait of keeping art and Ukrainian culture alive in the midst of war. My hunch is 鈥淧orcelain War鈥� wins, making it the second straight Ukraine dispatch to win, and a potentially poignant moment given recent
BAHR: This is impossible, and I would really like to hear what says from the Oscar stage, but I鈥檓 going to go with 鈥淣o Other Land.鈥� In addition to being a great film, it鈥檚 stayed top of mind and in the conversation despite not having a distributor.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: 鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here,鈥� Brazil; 鈥淭he Girl with the Needle,鈥� Denmark; 鈥淓milia P茅rez,鈥� France; 鈥淭he Seed of the Sacred Fig,鈥� Germany; 鈥淔low,鈥� Latvia
BAHR: The International category is especially difficult to predict this year. 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥檚鈥� best picture campaign may have flatlined, but it still won the BAFTA in the same category where it was up against two of the same contenders ( and ). 鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here鈥� is its toughest competition, though it鈥檚 hard to count out either. In the end, I think it may still swing 鈥淓milia P茅rez.鈥�
COYLE: What was once a cakewalk for 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥� has turned into a genuine nailbiter. I think 鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here鈥� wins it, thanks not just to the collapse of 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥� but the ascendance of Walter Salles鈥� timely tale of political courage. It鈥檚 a worthy winner, though I would love to see exiled Iranian director cheered for 鈥淭he Seed of the Sacred Fig,鈥� the year鈥檚 most courageous cinematic accomplishment.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Nominees: 鈥淔濒辞飞鈥�; 鈥淚nside Out 2鈥�; 鈥淢emoir of a Snail鈥�; 鈥淲allace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl鈥�; 鈥淭he Wild Robot鈥�
COYLE: As much as I鈥檇 like to pick 鈥淔low,鈥� the gorgeous ecological parable about a cat in a watered world, is going to win. Stiff as the competition is, Chris Sanders' movie swept the Annie Awards and is the consensus favorite. And since I, seemingly alone, found it too cloyingly manipulative to be genuinely moving, it also convinced me that I have no heart. So a double win for 鈥淭he Wild Robot.鈥�
BAHR: I鈥檒l pick 鈥淔low!鈥� In the grand tradition of the film significant enough to be nominated in two major categories, this seems like the place it鈥檒l win unless has anything to say about it.
Jake Coyle And Lindsey Bahr, The Associated Press
