For many, the B.C. elections of 2005 and 2009 were effectively plebiscites about economic management. In a survey I conducted in the middle of the 2009 campaign, the most important issue for 34 per cent of the province’s residents was the economy and jobs. Premier and BC Liberals leader Gordon Campbell consistently led BC NDP leader Carole James as the most trusted financial steward, even if James was always ahead on issues such as education and health care.
Fifteen years ago, the ramifications of the global financial crisis partially compelled voters to give a third majority mandate to the BC Liberals, as mentions of “the NDP of the 1990s” still resonated with voters.
This year, the situation is different. At the , the economy and jobs is third on voters’ list of concerns (14 per cent), behind health care (21 per cent) and housing, homelessness and poverty (41 per cent).
In stark contrast to 2009, British Columbians are expressing dismay at the complexities of life in the province. Three in four (75 per cent) say it has become harder to make ends meet. Other tasks have become more complicated, such as finding a job (54 per cent), paying for post-secondary education (59 per cent), saving for retirement (75 per cent) and buying a house (79 per cent).
The rise of housing, homelessness and poverty as a concern is truly unique. In May 2020, only 17 per cent thought this was the most important issue facing the province.
In our final survey before the 2020 provincial election, concerns about housing, homelessness and poverty rose to 23 per cent. Two years later, the proportion reached 38 per cent. In surveys conducted in May, June, July and September of this year, at least 40 per cent of British Columbians have felt this way.
Housing is an extremely difficult issue to campaign on. Voters are essentially asked to choose between visions and look into the future, with projects taking years to be finalized. Still, the measures implemented by the BC NDP governments led by John Horgan and David Eby are not contentious.
The “speculation tax” in specific urban areas that targets foreign and domestic homeowners who pay little or no income tax in B.C., and those who own second properties that are not long-term rentals, is supported by 66 per cent. Majorities also think the Horgan government made the right call when it expanded the foreign buyers tax to areas outside of Metro Vancouver (69 per cent) and increased the property transfer tax for homes valued at more than $3 million (61 per cent).
Most British Columbians are also in agreement with more-recent directives from the Eby government, including building more modular supportive homes in areas where people are experiencing homelessness (75 per cent), ending most strata age restrictions (59 per cent) and banning homeowners from operating short-term rentals unless they are located in their principal residence or on their property (53 per cent).
It is important to note that few British Columbians believe the provincial government overstepped its boundaries by compelling municipal administrations to meet established housing targets. Only 14 per cent of residents think their municipal government should reject this demand. Practically three in four (74 per cent) would prefer to accept and act.
At this point, British Columbians are divided on whether the actions of the provincial government will be effective (43 per cent) or ineffective (also 43 per cent) in making housing more affordable. A successful emotional connection with the electorate will require compelling proposals on housing and the economy.
In the early stages of the 2024 campaign, Eby and BC Conservative leader John Rustad are , but Eby is regarded as a superior option for housing, The way these two indicators move in the next few weeks—especially among young voters looking at the federal and provincial Conservatives much more seriously than in elections past—will be crucial.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 5-7, 2024, among 801 adults in B.C. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in B.C. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
