The two-party race for the provincial government that started to develop earlier this year has solidified with the disappearance of BC United. As was the case in 2005, 2009, 2017 and 2020, voters in British Columbia will see three party leaders in debates and public appearances, instead of the four they were exposed to in 2001 and 2013.
We have heard compelling arguments about where the voters who remained with BC United – fewer than one in 10 of those who had made up their minds two months ago – would go. If a proper merger had been achieved in December 2023, the answer to this question would probably be simpler.
Our first look at the electorate gives us a tight province-wide race, with the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) at 44 per cent (up three points) and the Conservative Party of BC at 42 per cent (up four points). The BC Green Party is third with 10 per cent (unchanged), while three per cent of decided voters (up one point) would cast a ballot for other parties or independent candidates.
A severe gender gap is continuing to take shape, with 47 per cent of women preferring the BC NDP and 48 per cent of men ready to back the BC Conservatives. On the generational front, most decided voters aged 55 and over remain in the BC NDP column (51 per cent to 41 per cent), while the BC Conservatives are first among those aged 35-54 (46 per cent to 42 per cent). The race is closer now among decided voters aged 18-34 (40 per cent for the BC NDP and 39 per cent for the BC Conservatives).
On a regional basis, four of the five battlegrounds have not changed dramatically over the past two months. The BC NDP holds commanding leads in Metro Vancouver (50 per cent to 39 per cent) and Vancouver Island (44 per cent to 33 per cent). The BC Conservatives are looking like the BC Liberals of yesteryear in two areas of the province: Southern B.C. (where they lead the BC NDP 51 per cent to 42 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (where they are ahead 57 per cent to 30 per cent).
Northern B.C. presents a unique conundrum. The BC Conservatives lead the BC NDP (42 per cent to 32 per cent, with the BC Greens at 10 per cent), but we find 16 per cent of decided voters who would support other parties or independent candidates. This could mean a lower level of support for BC Conservative nominees, if they are running against well-known lawmakers who were elected as BC Liberals. The campaign will be crucial for these incumbents, particularly if voters gravitate towards electing “a government” and choose to look beyond their constituency.
The voter consideration question – which saw BC United start at a respectable 46 per cent in May 2023 and finish at 32 per cent in July 2024 – heralds great news for the BC Conservatives. For the first time in our tracking, a majority of voters (52 per cent, up seven points) would consider casting a ballot for this party. The BC NDP is still first on this indicator with 55 per cent (up four points), with the BC Greens at 40 per cent (also up four points).
The approval rating for all leaders improved in September: to 51 per cent for BC NDP Leader David Eby (up three points), to 48 per cent for BC Conservative Leader John Rustad (up nine points) and to 41 per cent for BC Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau (up six points).
The “Best Premier” question – an important indicator of emotional connection – finds incumbent Eby in first place with 36 per cent, followed by Rustad with 27 per cent and Furstenau with 12 per cent. One in four British Columbians (25 per cent) cannot choose any of them for the province’s top political job.
On issues, housing, homelessness and poverty continues to dominate (41 per cent, down one point), followed by health care (21 per cent, unchanged), the economy and jobs (14 per cent, unchanged), crime and public safety (six per cent, up one point), and the environment (four per cent, down two points).
As we await the official start of the campaign, the three contending parties have plenty to worry about. The BC Greens need to finalize their list of candidates. The party’s free public transit proposal can be attractive to urban dwellers, but only if there is a BC Green contender on the ballot.
The BC NDP remains ahead with women and older voters, but faces severe regional challenges. Incumbent legislators in the Fraser Valley, where seven of the nine seats in contention went to the BC NDP in 2020, are not particularly safe at this point. Still, in spite of increases in approval and vote consideration, Rustad has not broken through as a “premier-in-waiting.”
The BC Conservatives have a level of support that mirrors the numbers posted under former BC Liberal leaders Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark, and that were simply unreachable for both Andrew Wilkinson and Kevin Falcon. Connecting in urban areas will be imperative to avoid a fate similar to the one that befell Campbell in 1996: receiving more votes than the incumbent government while securing fewer seats.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online study conducted from Sept. 9 to Sept. 11, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
